Économie: la route va être rude

Worried about inflation? Just wait: James Saft

[Routers] LONDON (Reuters) – Never mind inflation, the powerful and long-lasting effects of the credit crisis will rein it in soon enough.

With oil, gold and other commodities at very high levels and U.S. producer prices up 6.3 percent last year — the most since 1981 — fears have risen that an aggressive round of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will embed inflation.

Consumer price inflation for December was up 0.3 percent and has risen 4.1 percent since a year earlier.

But these are likely to prove lagging indicators, even if demand from emerging markets remains strong for raw materials.

If credit is being strictly rationed and asset prices falling — as they are in housing and in stocks — investment, consumption and just about anything else that can be put off will be put off.

« The strong probability is that we will get at least disinflation in 2008, » said George Magnus, senior economic advisor to UBS.

« I’m not aware of any banking crisis in history, almost without exception, that was not accompanied by falling inflation.

[LeDevoir] À lire! Chiasson est généralement posé dans ses analyses. Aujourd’hui il est paniqué… L’argent ne vaut plus rien

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