Récession à l’horizon

La combinaison de l’augmentation du prix de l’essence, l’explosion de la bulle immobilière et la dette grandissante aux EU font en sorte qu’il y a 75% de « chances » que 2007 finisse en récession. C’est ce qu’affirme Jephraim P Gundzik, président de Condor Advisers.

Investing in a fool’s paradise
By Jephraim P Gundzik

The rapid slowing of America’s economy has been shrugged off by stock markets worldwide, which continue to vault higher on the increasingly misplaced notion that corporate profits will grow perpetually.

In sharp contrast, currency markets have grasped the idea that the US economy is falling into recession, punishing the dollar. As economic weakness intensifies in the months ahead, expect dollar depreciation to accelerate. The dollar is likely to drop by at least 15% against most currencies by the end of 2007.

Statistics produced by the National Association of Realtors showed a similar decline of existing home sales and sliding home prices. The housing market collapse is prompting a surge in foreclosure filings, which were up 35% in the first quarter of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006. During this period, one of every 264 households in America was under some type of foreclosure. Rapidly rising foreclosures are the main factor undermining America’s besieged subprime mortgage lenders.

Commerce Department statistics on durable goods orders, which showed a rebound of 3.4% in March, impressed investors, prompting a stock market rally. Somehow these investors ignored the fact that this rebound was entirely driven by unusually large orders for aircraft. Unnoticed within these statistics was data showing that business capital spending orders went into freefall, contracting at an annualized rate of over 15% in the first quarter.



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